Research from Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) highlights far-right extremists in the UK and resurgence of the New IRA as sources of domestic threat in the run up to the country’s expected exit from the European Union (EU).
Jane’s by IHS Markit
+44 20 3159 3255
+1 303 858 6417
Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC), a product from business information provider IHS Markit (NYSE:INFO), has recorded a total of 34 attacks in the UK between January and July 2019, resulting in one non-militant fatality and 22 non-militants wounded. In the same period in 2018, JTIC recorded 40 attacks, also resulting in a single non-militant fatality, with 13 people wounded.
The majority of the attacks recorded in 2019, 61.8%, occurred in Northern Ireland, indicating the significance of the threat posed by dissident republicanism. JTIC has noted a shift in the nature of the threat to the UK in the previous year, from more prominent lone-actor Islamist militancy to a more diverse set of actors, including separatist, Islamist, and far-right individuals.
The New IRA: dissident republican group has low capabilities for successful attack on the mainland
JTIC notes the use of parcel incendiary devices sent by the dissident republican group the New IRA to targets in London and Glasgow in March illustrated the group’s attempts to conduct attacks on the UK mainland.
“The use of such incendiary devices is indicative of dissident republican militants’ low capabilities to conduct successful attacks on the mainland. These weapons are unlikely to result in significant damage or casualties,” said Chris Hawkins, senior analyst at JTIC. “The threat from dissident republican groups remains largely confined to Northern Ireland itself and groups likely have the intent to up their operational tempo as the Brexit deadline approaches.
“While capabilities are relatively low in comparison to militants’ height of operation between the 70s and 90s, recent improvised explosive devices attacks targeting security forces – most recently in County Fermanagh – illustrate that militants retain the capability to manufacture explosive devices and intend to inflict casualties on police and army personnel.”
Rise in attacks by far-right extremists small but significant, while political factors could increase activity
“Between 2017 and 2019, JTIC has noted a small but significant rise in terrorist group actions towards political targets in the UK – pointing towards a possible growth in the far right’s disaffection with the political establishment,” said Alex Theodosiou, analyst at JTIC. “This is likely the result of the UK’s charged, polarized, political situation and might presage increased risk of political figures or establishments being targeted in the coming months.”
“An increase in far-right activity is likely following a Brexit that is deemed unsatisfactory to extremist groups – for example, an economic downturn could lead to a potential rise in anti-government sentiment, as well as a possible increase in anti-European sentiment directed at EU nationals. The continuation of successful far-right attacks elsewhere – like that in New Zealand’s Christchurch on 15 March – could inspire further attacks in the UK,” said Theodosiou.
About IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.
Meet Jane’s at DSEI (Stand N2-240)
Jane’s is the official Intelligence Partner and Show Daily publisher of DSEI 2019. Find us at Stand N2-240 – by the West Entrance to the Excel Centre.
About Jane’s by IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com/janes)
With a legacy of over 100 years, Jane’s delivers the world’s leading defence and security insight to help you make critical decisions. Our renowned open-source intelligence and powerful analytical tools encompass data on equipment, technology, parts, standards and logistics, as well as objective analysis of markets, programmes and budgets, risk and capabilities assessments, training and consulting services. Government, military and defence organisations gain insight into, plan for and act upon critical threats in the current global national-security environment. Businesses leverage tools and resources for more cost-effective defence-system design, delivery and support.
Over 500 thought leaders provide you with actionable intelligence for expedited and improved decision making. Customers, prospects and media outlets alike rely upon Jane’s thought leaders for analysis, forecasts, and perspectives on topics, events, and issues that impact the global business landscape.
IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. and/or its affiliates. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners © 2019 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.